Is the election already over in Cardiff?

Campaigning for the general election may barely be underway, but three out of the four Cardiff seats are already being described as safe by the Electoral Reform Society.

According to data released by the society yesterday, which you can download by clicking on this link, Cardiff Central, Cardiff South and Penarth and Cardiff West are all deemed unlikely to change hands. That would leave only Cardiff North as a battleground in the buildup to May 6.

The society categorised the seats based on the new election boundaries (you can see a key to the categories here). In total, 382 UK seats were considered safe by the society, which sees Wales as a safe region generally, with 60% of seats supposedly decided already.

Looking at the national picture, the society's chief executive Ken Ritchie said in a statement published on the Electoral Reform Society's website:

"These winners will take their seats in Britain's Safe Parliament. Voters will never be able to boot these MPs out under our present system. Most will leave office on conditions of their own choosing after careers measuring into decades. They are likely to include our future Prime Ministers, our future leaders of the opposition, and all the great office holders of state. They form a class of MPs that are, quite simply, elected for life.

"The Expenses crisis awakened people of the inability of ordinary voters to hold these people to account. And for any naive enough to think the crisis might trigger a political earthquake, remember these seats are earthquake-proof thanks to our antique voting system."

Julie Morgan, the Labour MP for Cardiff North, therefore occupies the only Cardiff seat deemed vulnerable by the society. You can read our recent interview with Julie here.

For a list of all the safe seats in the UK, visit the Electoral Reform Society website here. You can also find out more information about the current candidates in your area by reading this post from yesterday.