Thursday, June 03, 2010

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 12.. touched Oman and Moving North

JTWC warning
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031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF OMAN (GOO). THE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD ALTHOUGH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS INCREASED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ELONGATION. THE CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE, ENHANCING THE CURRENT POSITION FIX
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03A IS NOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, A PRELUDE TO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A SKIRTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF OMAN AND WITH INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF
GOO EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR CALLS FOR A SHARP NORTHWEST
DEFLECTION DURING THE FIRST 12-36 HOURS BEFORE THE RECURVATURE - A
POSSIBLE INDICATION THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN EARLY RECURVE.  RECENT STORM MOTION AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION BOLSTER AN EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. 

JTWC path
-------------------


IMD warning
-------------------------

ARB 02/2010/23                                                                                                                Dated: 03.06.2010
Time of issue: 1730 hours IST

Sub:   Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.

            The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northward and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, 3rd June 2010 near latitude 19.50N and long. 59.50E, about 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1000 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 350 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman) and 120 km south-southeast of Masirah island (Oman).
           
            Available observations and numerical weather prediction models guidance suggest that the system would move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction and cross Oman coast between latitude 20.50N and 21.50N by tomorrow the 4th June forenoon. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by 5th June and move towards Pakistan coast.
           
            Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
03-06-2010/1430
19.5/59.5
120-130 gusting to 140
03-06-2010/1730
19.5/59.5
120-130 gusting to 140
03-06-2010/2330
20.0/59.5
110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/0530
20.5/59.0
110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/1130
21.0/59.0
110-120 gusting  to 130
04-06-2010/2330
22.0/59.0
100-110 gusting to 120
05-06-2010/1130
23.0/59.5
90-100 gusting to 110
05-06-.2010/2330
24.0/61.5
80-90 gusting to 110
06-06-.2010/1130
24.5/63.5
70-80 gusting to 90
                                                                                                                                   


Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.




Satellite shot at 7pm IST
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