For the next 12 hrs it'll move in a N-N-W direction, before taking a re-curve towards North Arabian sea due to the Upper air current as seen here..
Eventually it'll make landfall over pakistan and touching parts of Gujarat as well.
Before making landfall on 5-Jun, the system will weaken into a depression according to GFS model.
IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/13 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 1100 hours IST
Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.
The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 over westcentral Arabian sea near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
02-06-2010/0830 | 17.5/61.0 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
02-06-2010/1130 | 18.0/60.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.5/60.0 | 130-140 gusting to 150 |
02-06-2010/2330 | 19.0/59.5 | 140-150 gusting to 165 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 19.5/59.5 | 150-160 gusting to 175 |
03-06-2010/1730 | 20.5/59.5 | 170-190 gusting to 205 |
04-06-2010/0530 | 22.5/60.5 | 210-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-.2010/1730 | 23.5/63.5 | 210-220 gusting to 235 |
05-06-.2010/0530 | 24.5/66.5 | 200-210 gusting to 225 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea
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