The ‘trough triple' continues to bear typical pre-monsoon weather over the north-west, east and south while keeping the top heat pinned to the east and adjoining east-central India.
FRESH WESTERLY
Heat wave conditions prevailed over isolated pockets of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Telangana, north coastal Orissa and north Rajasthan.
The spike in mercury over north Rajasthan could be traced to the arrival phase of a fresh western disturbance, whose ‘hot head' up front induces incremental warming of the atmosphere.
Maximum temperatures may rise by 1 to 2 deg Celsius over parts of northwest and central India during the next two days and decrease thereafter from weather triggered by the westerly system.
The warming is caused by the rising motion of air in the westerly's front from a heated up surface. It cools down the air with gain in height and sets up weather in dust storms, rain or thundershowers during this time of the year.
No significant change is seen in day temperatures over east India during this period, an IMD outlook said.
TROUGH TRIPLE
Yesterday's trough triple were more or less traceable at their respective locations in the northwest, east and south of the country.
The most prominent among them is the north to south-aligned one running down from east Bihar to the extreme south of Tamil Nadu. It snaked down across Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka.
Additionally, it featured embedded upper air cyclonic circulations hanging in over east Bihar, east Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.
Towards the northwest, an upper air cyclonic circulation induced by the inward movement of a western disturbance was traced to central Pakistan across the international border.
The eastward movement of the combine could bring it drifting into position over northwest India over the next few days.
The IMD has said in its outlook that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from Monday onwards. It could go on to affect the western Himalayan region over the next four days.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Satellite imagery indicated the presence of convective clouds capable of generating rain or thundershowers over parts of the north-eastern States, south-east Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, south Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and the Gulf of Mannar.
Low to medium clouds (partly-clouded conditions) were seen over the western Himalayan region and south peninsular India.
The forecast, valid for the next two days, said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, while it would be scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
A warning valid for the period said that an isolated thunder squall may occur over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Orissa and Jharkhand.
The proceedings could perk up further from Saturday as the western disturbance livens up the resident trough leading to a more active mop-up of moisture from the Bay of Bengal.
Presently, the westerly system would spark off rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours before scaling up in intensity.
The rains would filter into adjoining plains of the north-west, with Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh bracing to slip under the same from Wednesday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Kerala and coastal Karnataka during this period, in tandem with the fluctuating fortunes of the north-south trough.
Rains would be isolated over Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, south Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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