Assessments

Brazil

Chile

United States

China

Spain

Russia

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Goes to China, New U.S. Tariffs on China

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 9, 2024

Media

Iran

Israel

Podcasts

Military & Security

What are each country's defense capabilities?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Israel-Iran Relations

South Africa

The skyline of Johannesburg, South Africa, is seen on April 19, 2023.

Economics

The government that emerges from the May 29 election will probably fail to address the structural factors holding back South Africa's economy, but a financial crisis remains unlikely for now.

Assessing South Africa's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Snapshots

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Social Issues

For the first time in a U.S. presidential election, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) policy will become a prominent point of contention between the two candidates and their parties. 

The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Corporate ESG Programs

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Dec. 15, 2023, in in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Democratic backsliding will likely complicate government efforts to attract Western investment, but could portend improved relations with neighbors and Russia and China.

Gauging the Implications of Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Backsliding

Palestinian Territories

A picture taken on May 6, 2024, shows smoke billowing following a bombardment east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

If Hamas doesn't agree to a more favorable cease-fire deal, Israel will likely expand its push into Gaza's southernmost city at the risk of exacerbating domestic and international blowback.

With the Capture of a Border Crossing, Israel's Rafah Operation Has Begun

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

United Kingdom

Ballots are counted during local elections in Thornaby, England, on May 3, 2024. 

The outcome of the votes in England and Wales confirms the ruling Conservative Party will likely perform poorly in the general election, but also that the opposition Labour Party will face competition from smaller parties.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

South Africa's May general election will be the country's most competitive vote in 30 years, testing the dominance of the ruling African National Congress.

2024 Elections: South Africa

Latest

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (left), surrounded by their respective delegations, hold a meeting in Beijing, China, on Oct. 18, 2023. 

The Russian president will likely push for greater trade, military and energy cooperation, but a breakthrough is unlikely unless it happens on China's terms.

What To Expect During Putin's Trip to China

Sri Lanka

(From left to right) Peter Breuer, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for Sri Lanka, speaks next to Krishna Srinivasan, the Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, during a press conference in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on May 15, 2023. 

The IMF will likely approve the next tranche of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout. But if Colombo fails to reach a deal with its bondholders in the coming months, future disbursements may be at risk.

What's at Stake As Sri Lanka Struggles To Restructure Its Debt

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Natsumi Sakai (C) of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan poses with others after receiving news that she won the by-election for the Tokyo No. 15 district seat for the lower house, in Tokyo, Japan, on April 28, 2024.

Recent by-elections reveal that a slush fund scandal is continuing to take its toll on Japan's ruling party, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to remain in power, for now.

By-Election Losses Shake Japan's Ruling Party, but Kishida Stays the Course

Mexico

Mexico's June 2 presidential election will pit former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum from the ruling Morena party against leading opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez.

2024 Elections: Mexico

Europe

France

Serbia

Hungary

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen between the Chinese and French national flags in Beijing on Jan. 9, 2018. 

During the rare visit, the Chinese president will seek to ease EU trade tensions and secure Beijing's economic presence and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

What To Expect During Xi's Trip to Europe

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Columns

On Geopolitics

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

New Zealand

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

India's Supreme Court granted interim bail to opposition Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal through June 1, Hindustan Times reported on May 10.

India: Supreme Court Grants Interim Bail to Opposition Leader, Allowing Him To Campaign

U.S.-Iran Relations

Malaysia informed a visiting U.S. Treasury Department delegation that it will not abide by unilateral U.S. sanctions against transshipments of Iranian oil, BenarNews reported on May 10.

Malaysia, U.S., Iran: Kuala Lumpur Refuses Washington's Request To Abide by Iran Sanctions

The Philippines' national security advisor called for the expulsion of Chinese diplomatic personnel allegedly responsible for recording and leaking a purported Jan. 3 phone conversation between a Chinese diplomat and a Philippine admiral, Bloomberg reported on May 10.

Philippines, China: Philippine National Security Advisor Calls for Expulsion of Chinese Diplomats

Kuwait

Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah dissolved the country's parliament and suspended some constitutional articles for no more than four years, Reuters reported May 10.

Kuwait: Emir Dissolves Parliament, Suspends Some Constitutional Articles

Russian troops attacked two locations in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and gained a foothold in a number of Ukrainian settlements along the Russia-Ukraine border, Reuters reported on May 10.

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Opens New Front With Attacks in Kharkiv Region

Cuba

Ecuador

Venezuela

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security proposed a new process that would disqualify individuals seeking asylum earlier in the asylum request process, allowing authorities to expel migrants quickly if they have been convicted of dangerous crimes, according to a May 9 statement. 

U.S.: Government Announces New Process To Expedite Expulsion of Some Asylum Seekers

A group of far-right Israeli settlers set fire to parts of the perimeter of the east Jerusalem headquarters of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA, twice incurring property damage but not resulting in casualties or fatalities, as protestors reportedly chanted, "Burn down the United Nations," BBC reported on May 9.

Israel: Far-Right Israeli Settlers Attack UNRWA Headquarters in East Jerusalem, Forcing Closure

Science & Technology

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

China and Hungary have upgraded their relationship to an "all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership for the new era," Chinese President Xi Jinping announced during a joint conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest, Bloomberg reported May 9. 

China, Hungary: Xi and Orban Announce New Investment in Hungary, Enhance Bilateral Relations

Chad

Chad's National Election Management Agency, or ANGE, announced that junta leader Mahamat Deby Itno won the country's presidential election with 61.03% of votes, Radio France Internationale reported on May 10.

Chad: Deby Declared Winner of Presidential Election, Opposition Calls for Protests

The U.S. Biden administration is scheduled to announce changes to Sec. 301 tariffs on China on May 14, including new tariffs on key industries such as electric vehicles, battery technologies and solar cells, Bloomberg reported on May 9.

China, U.S.: Washington To Place New Tariffs on China as Soon as May 14

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

What To Expect During Putin's Trip to China

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Supreme Court Grants Interim Bail to Opposition Leader, Allowing Him To Campaign

Malaysia, U.S., Iran: Kuala Lumpur Refuses Washington's Request To Abide by Iran Sanctions

Philippines, China: Philippine National Security Advisor Calls for Expulsion of Chinese Diplomats

Kuwait: Emir Dissolves Parliament, Suspends Some Constitutional Articles

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Opens New Front With Attacks in Kharkiv Region

U.S.: Government Announces New Process To Expedite Expulsion of Some Asylum Seekers

Israel: Far-Right Israeli Settlers Attack UNRWA Headquarters in East Jerusalem, Forcing Closure

China, Hungary: Xi and Orban Announce New Investment in Hungary, Enhance Bilateral Relations

Chad: Deby Declared Winner of Presidential Election, Opposition Calls for Protests

China, U.S.: Washington To Place New Tariffs on China as Soon as May 14

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